Hungary parliamentary elections 2014: Fidesz-KDNP in the lead

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According to  Századvég, a Fidesz/government funded think tank, if Hungary parliamentary elections scheduled for April 6 were held tomorrow, the governing Fidesz-KDNP alliance would be returned to power.   According to a survey of 1000 people conducted earlier this week, it appears the main beneficiary of the alliance of liberal and left wing opposition parties announced two weeks ago is the one liberal opposition party that has refused to join–Politics Can Be Different (LMP).

The survey shows popular support for LMP climbing to 5% in the wake of the announcement earlier this month that the Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP) and the Together 2014-PM alliance were joining forces with former prime minister Ferenc Gyurcsany’s Democratic Coalition (DK) and Gabor Fodor’s Hungarian Liberty Party.  (The five parties have agreed to run a unified list of candidates and to support the candidacy of MSZP chairman Attila Mesterhazy for prime minister).

The resurgence in LMP’s popularity is extraordinary considering a Tárki study released today shows LMP support falling to 1% of all voters and 2% of decided voters the first half of January.  Only two weeks ago one of LMP’s most visible members, Gabor Vago, announced that he was leaving the party because it no longer stands for what he believes in.

Fidesz would love nothing more than for LMP supporters to believe their party has a real chance of clearing the 5% parliamentary threshold, lest they be tempted to vote for the MSZP-led coalition instead.  For this reason, Századvég’s findings with regard to LMP are likely to be met with some skepticism.

Just ten weeks before national parliamentary elections are to be held on 6 April, 30% of Hungarian voters are still undecided.  A little under one-third (32%) of the Hungarian electorate plan to vote for the governing Fidesz-KDNP alliance. 20% plan to vote for the opposition alliance, 11% for radical right wing party Jobbik, 5% for LMP, and 2% for other parties.

In 2010 Fidesz won a two-thirds parliamentary majority despite receiving fewer votes than in 2006 because large numbers of traditional left-wing and liberal voters stayed at home on election day.  If Fidesz-KDNP can persuade undecided voters to stay at home on election day, then it seems likely to be returned to power on April 6.

According to the survey, of those certain to vote 51% plan to vote for Fidesz, 28% for the opposition alliance, 14% for Jobbik, 6% for LMP, and 1% for misc. parties.

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According to hvg.hu the CATI methodology employed by Századvég means the results of the sample group should not vary from those of the total adult population by more than 3.2%.

Referenced in this article:

Századvég: az LMP az ellenzéki összefogás legnagyobb nyertese, hvg,hu;29 January 2014

 Tárki: Erősödik a MSZP, gyengül az LMP, Mandiner.hu; 29 January 2014