Viktor Orbán and Fidesz wlll be returned to power on Sunday according to public pollsters Republikon and Nézőpont Intézet. Together with their Christian Democratic allies, Prime Minister Orbán’s Fidesz party is expected to win between 56 and 62 percent of seats in parliament, reports index.hu.
Republikon projects that Fidesz-Christian Democratic People’s Party (KDNP) candidates will win direct election in 76 out of 106 electoral districts. Thanks in part to the practice of “winner compensation” introduced during the second Orbán government (2010-2014), the pollster projects that an additional 37 Fidesz-KDNP candidates will enter parliament from their joint national list for a total of 113 mandates out of the grand total of 199.
MSZP-Dialogue candidates are projected by Republikon to win direct election in 16 electoral districts, with another 17 candidates entering from the joint party list for a total of 33 mandates–a relatively strong showing in comparison to the 19-20 mandates projected by rival pollster Nézőpont Intézet (see below).
According to Republikon, Jobbik candidates are only projected to win direct election in four electoral districts. However, Hungary’s second-largest party is expected to receive enough votes for its national list to send an additional 25 candidates to parliament for a total of 29 mandates.
Nézőpont, by contrast, is less pessimistic about the radical rightwing party’s electoral prospects, projecting that it will end up with between 36 and 42 seats in parliament.
Republikon projects that Democratic Coalition (DK) candidates will win direct election in four electoral districts, with another nine entering parliament from the party’s national list for a total of 13 mandates.
The pollster is also projecting that Politics Can Be Different (LMP) candidates Bernedett Szél and Antal Csárdi will win direct election in their respective Budapest districts, and that the leftish-greenish party’s national list will receive enough votes to allow another five LMP politicians to enter parliament.
Együtt candidates Szabolcs Szabó and Zoltan Vajda are expected to win direct election in their respective Budapest electoral districts, with a third Együtt politician entering parliament from the microparty’s national list. In such an event, successful Együtt candidates will be seated as independent MPs because parties require a minimum of five mandates in order to form a parliamentary delegation.
Republikon is projecting that two independent candidates will win direct election to parliament: Veszprém’s Zoltán Kész and Pécs’s Tamás Mellnár.
Index writes that Republikon’s projections contain numerous surprises, including Péter Niedermüller’s (DK) projected victory over Mihály Varga (Fidesz) in Budapest’s fourth electoral district, and the fact that Jobbik candidates are only expected to win direct election to parliament in four out of 106 electoral districts.
Rival pollster Nézőpont Intézet is projecting a stronger showing by Jobbik and LMP, mainly at the expense of the MSZP-Dialogue political alliance and micro-parties Momentum and Együtt, neither of which is expected to clear the 5 percent threshold necessary to enter parliament.
The pollster projects that 43 percent of the party list vote will go to Fidesz-KDNP, 22 percent to Jobbik, 11 percent to the MSZP-Dialogue political alliance, 8 percent each to Democratic Coalition and Politics Can Be Different, 3 percent to Momentum, 2 percent to the Two-Tailed Dog Party, and 1 percent to Együtt.
The pollster expects parliament’s 199 mandates to be apportioned as follows:
- Fidesz-KDNP: 112-123 mandates
- Jobbik: 36-42 mandates
- MSZP-Dialogue: 19-20
- Democratic Coalition: 11-13
- Politics Can Be Different: 6-9
- Independent: 3
- German nationality self-government: 1