Economic researcher GKI Zrt. has revised its recent economic forecast for Hungary in light of better than expected third quarter manufacturing and capital investment figures published last week.
GKI attributes this year’s economic growth primarily to favorable weather conditions resulting in increased agricultural output. However, it notes that part of the GDP improvement is due to downward revisions made recently to economic figures for the first three quarters of 2012 and upward revisions made to the first two quarters of 2013.
For 2013 GKI is now projecting a 1.0 per cent increase in GDP, a 4 per cent increase in capital investments, and a 1.5 per cent increase in consumer consumption. GKI expects consumption to increase 1.5 per cent year on year in the months leading up to next year’s election.
GKI has revised upward its projection of GDP growth in 2014 from 1.4 per cent to 1.8 per cent.
GKI says the numbers of Hungarians working or actively searching for a job actually decreased in 2013 if one discounts the nearly 300,000 engaged in some form of public work this year. Notwithstanding government plans to engage an 200,000 in public work through the end of April, GKI expects unemployment to increase slightly from 9.8 per cent to 10.0 per cent in 2014.
GKI is currently projecting average gross earnings to increase 3.5 per cent in 2013 and 4.5 per cent in 2014 and the consumer price index to increase 1.8 per cent in 2013 and 2.1 per cent in 2014.
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