Jobbik’s “cute” campaign appears to be working. A survey conducted in July by pollster ZRI Závecz Research suggests that Hungary’s radical right-wing party is gaining in popularity not at the expense of center-right Fidesz (assuming Hungary’s ruling party can still be considered that), but rather at the expense of the Socialists and other left-wing parties traditionally supported by pensioners, women and people living in Budapest.
The extremist party`s improved showing with these three groups follows months of eroding support among youth, men and those living in the countryside. Although support among those under 50 years has fallen from 20 to 15 percent of the voting age population, it has increased from 11 to 13 percent among those in their 50s. Overall support for the party increased from 11 to 13 percent. The male to female ratio of Jobbik supporters has changed from 20:11 to 16:10. Also changed is the ratio of Jobbik supporters living in the countryside to those living in the capital city: from 16:12 to 13:13.
Hungary’s governing Fidesz party continues to enjoy the most support among qualified voters, with 27 percent saying they would vote for the party of Viktor Orbán if elections were held this weekend. The Hungarian Socialist Party (11 percent) gained a little ground, whereas support for Politics Can Be Different (LMP) plummetted from 3 to 1 percent in the wake of co-leader András Schiffer’s sudden departure. For former Socialist prime minister Ferenc Gyurcsány’s Democratic Coalition (DK), support remains steady at 5 percent.
35 percent of respondents said they would not vote for any of the main political parties.
Of those certain to vote for a particular party in the next election in 2018, 43 percent said they would vote for Fidesz, representing a 3 percentage point decrease since July. Jobbik strengthened 4 percentage points to 22 percent. Support for the Socialists decreased to 17 percent. Support for DK remained at 9 percent, for LMP at 4 percent, and of Együtt (Together) and the Hungarian Liberal Party (MLP) 1 percent each.
On a scale of one to hundred, Hungarians rate the work of the governing Fidesz party at 39 and that of the opposition at 35. Among Fidesz supporters this number was 75 for Prime Minister Orbán and his cabinet. Among Jobbik, the Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP), LMP and DK supporters these numbers were 26, 24, 21 and 16 points, respectively.
Undecided voters rated the government’s activity at 21, and that of the opposition at 20.