Left-wing parties must win 300,000 more votes than conservative parties in order to achieve the same electoral result due to the redrawing of electoral districts, according to Robert Laszlo of Political Capital.
The election law of 2011 decreased from 176 to 106 the number of electoral districts. According to Laszlo, when drawing up the new electoral map, the government did so with the interests of the governing parties in mind. Traditional left wing districts were split up and attached to neighboring electoral districts where Fidesz enjoyed a higher level of support.
Based on his analysis, Laszlo concludes that in order for the left-wing opposition to secure 100 out of 199 seats in parliament, it must obtain 300,000 more votes than for the governing party. He says the reason the number of authorized voters per electoral district varies between 65,000 and 85,000 is because conservative districts were made smaller and left-wing districts were made bigger in order to dilute the left-wing vote. This means conservative candidates need fewer votes in electoral districts leaning to the right than left-wing candidates do in electoral districts leaning to the left.
Election expert Zoltan Toth says the new electoral districts are based on the elections results in 2006 and 2010, and that when redistricting the Fidesz-KDNP government took care to ensure that historically conservative regions remained intact.
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